Hebrewland

Israeli politics change every day. Just last year Ariel Sharon couldn't find strength within his own party having abandoned the Likudniks when he chose to negotiate with the Palestinians. Having somewhat rejected his own party by forming the more moderate Kadima party he seemed to be on his way to a landslide victory in late March. Amazing if you think about how crazy all this is. First the guy is hated within his own party, then forms a new party, receives broad support, and now he's ill to the point where he most likely won't be a player, or alive.

So what's going to happen? My bet is former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has remained solidly hawkish and against negotiations until arrests are made, will follow in Sharon's path, more or less. Netanyahu is an American-style politician who will do whatever it takes to be on top again. If that involves following Sharon to the left in order to assume the role of Prime Minister again I'd be willing to bet he'll do it. I view him as a typical "say anything" politician who while concerned with Israel's saftey and future seems equally concerned with his role. I'm sure he believes only he can lead Israel down the right path which is why he finds himself in this position to begin with. I don't know, and nor do I care.

I see Netanyahu as a retread, as will Palestinians. Any move to the left will be seen as politicking, and staying where he is won't help Israel anyway. In his heart of hearts he's against a Palestinian state, and that's what will rise to the surface.

Frankly, nothing ever changes over there, and nothing ever will. We can talk about this shit til the Jesus comes home, but it's not going to change. Some days will be better than others, and other days will see pizza parlors blown to smitherines. That's just the way it is.

Sharon lives, Sharon dies, the next person comes, goes, stays, whatever. Nothing is ever going to change in the Middle East until leading nations like Egypt start making structural changes, and by that I mean offering their citizens the chance to succeed in life. For those who look at Iraq as the example of this, stop kidding yourself. A longterm US invasion of a secular governed nation in the Middle East that was not considered a leader in overall Middle Eastern politics is not going to the do the trick, for a thousand reasons.

Now you want to nuke Saudi Arabia to get things going, well, that I could live with...