Some draft thoughts in general.
I realized this weekend what Pete Prisco of Sportsline, Lenn Robbins of the NY Post, Todd McShay and Mel Kiper of ESPN, and myself have in common: We don't know crap about the NFL Draft. Unlike Clark Judge of Sportsline who seems to know
quite a bit more. At least Judge got SOME of the picks right.
I decided to
shake it up and make the correct Raiders pick at #1 by selecting Calvin Johnson. But no, no no, for what would the draft be if not for clueless GMs/experts making so many wrong calls? A big difference between myself and any of these "experts" is they got paid to be wrong, where as I don't. Websites, radio stations, and tv shows are selling ad-space based on their horrible predictions. My inaccuracies come for free.
Lets put some perspective on recent drafts. Looking first at
2000, of the top Top 10 picks you can make the case that 6 are busts, considering their draft position. Of that first round almost 17, more than half are busts. I'm sure the experts were saying that then. However, 2000 beats
2001, because the Top 10 that year featured no less than 8 busts. Count 'em, 8, and I'm sorry, but that includes Michael Vick, especially considering that San Diego traded back, moved to 4, took LaDanian Tomlinson (the best player maybe ever), and then took Drew Brees with the first pick of Round 2. The rest of the studs from that Top 10 include Leonard Davis, Gerard Warren, Justin Smith, David Terrell, Andre Carter, Koren Robinson, and Jamal Reynolds. No one outside of their family members could identify these guys if you walked past them.
2001 should not be picked on too much because there's always 2002. Oh 2002, where would we be without the experts? 2002 was the year Houston HAD TO HAVE A FRANCHISE QB instead of the best player available: Julius Peppers. Now they don't have a quarterback, and tried to draft a guy last year who hopefully could one day become, ehh hemmm......Julius Peppers.
The '02 draft featured: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Mike Williams (Texas), Quentin Jammer, Ryan Sims, Bryant McKinnie, Roy Williams (Oklahoma), John Henderson, and the one player Mel Kiper said was a "bad pick by the Cincinnati Bengals", Levi Jones. Jones was a "reach" according to Mel. Of course, Jones is one of the better tackles in the league, and was a Pro Bowl alternate. He's better than McKinnie. Peppers is the only one worthy of a Top 10 pick, was considered a sure thing, if we can even place a value on what that means.
Ohhhh, 2002, how I long to speak about you longer, but I just cannot. I must move on to the incredible year that was
2003, a time when GMs and experts could not miss...and by that I mean, could not miss a chance to be wrong...UHHGAIN.
In 2003 we had Carson Palmer on top, and rightfully so. I've always been a huge fan, although many believed he'd be a bust after not playing his first year. I was sure he'd shine. Then the onslaught of talent started to get picked right after Palmer. Our Top 10 featured the talented, yet teamless Charles Rogers at #2. A guy praying to make the Giants this season. A Giants team with few WR options. At #4 the Jets took the dominant, yet undersized, defensive tackle Dwayne Robertson from the college football powerhouse Kentucky. Dwayne is a household name throughout Freeport and Bethpage, Long Island. And who could forget cornerback Terrance Newman at #5, also from a football powerhouse, Kansas State. Newman plays in Dallas, in case you wondered, locking down wideouts slightly better than Charles Rogers. So you need to plug a hole on the defensive line? Well, if so, who better than tackle Jonathon Sullivan of Georgia to do that? And don't think he's not available to your team right now because last time I checked he wasn't even on a NFL roster. The great Byron Leftwich filled the #8 slot, and he now is locked in a gunslingers' battle down in jacksonville, Florida with world-beater David Garrard, formerly a Conference USA star. That's right, David Garrard! C'mon, you know who that is. He was the guy drafted 108th right after Penn State RB Omar Easy, and just before Purdue's Kicker Travis Dortch in the 2002 draft. You know that guy, right? Travis Dortch Bag!
The highlight of the 2003 Draft was the major error made when the Minnesota Vikings got so caught up in trade talks that they actually missed their pick! Remember that insanity?!?!? And man, did they pay a dear price for that
By missing the #7 pick, and having Jacksonville snag Leftwich and Carolina quickly grabbing the incredible O-Lineman Jordan Gross, the Vikings got stuck with defensive tackle Kevin Williams! Sheezus, what a bad move. Not only did they have to pay Williams less money, but they've had to sit there for the last 4 seasons and watch him DOMINATE. Idiots! Rounding out the 2003 Top 10 was Terrell Suggs, a "tweener...who doesn't have a true position", so we were told by Kiper and other experts. He has 40 sacks in 4 years for the best defense in football.
Experts.
Finally, 2004, a year when almost half the first 10 picks seem to be good! On top was Eli Manning, and while the jury is still out on him, I think he's good and will be better. Phil Rivers went 4th to the Chargers, and he's going to be great as well. However, at #11 Ben Roethlisberger was picked. He now has a Superbowl ring (and a face like Al Pacino after flying out off his motorcycle). This top 10 featured only 4 busts, which is apparently good. They are "can't miss" Robert Gallery, Dunta Robinson (average), Kellen Winslow (probably not a bust...except he too crashed his motorcycle), and Reggie Williams, who is down in Florida trying to make Leftwich and Garrard look good. Not bad! Only 30-40% of the Top 10 suck!
Alright,
2005 and
2006 we cannot judge just quite yet. While there are clearly busts in these drafts, it'd be unfair to not let these stars play out their first contracts. However, I am seeing 3 to 4 to 5 solid busts in the '05 and '06 classes.
With all of this said, I have to predict the future...which, if you saw my picks, I was not so good at.
There are going to be at least 3 in the Top 10, and that's being kind, so lets begin. Way-Way-Way-Way-Wait, hold on, one more thing I need to add: What defines a "bust" anyway? Is it enough that the player doesn't play great? What if the team stinks even if that player excels, example, Andre Johnson? What if looking back you can say, "Well, he's awesome, but if they had taken Ken Davis they'd be doing so much better now."? For example, the Arizona Cardinals took WR Bryant Johnson from Penn State in 2003 after having Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin on the roster. Johnson may shine in 'Zona, but in all likelihood, considering the other players they have to pay, he'll be gone after this season (I don't know his contract). He's not a bust, but it was a BUST pick because they could have taken Penn State teammate Larry Johnson who was still available! Don't tell me you didn't see the game film because you had to fast forward through a lot of Larry plays to get to Bryant plays. Now they signed Edgerrin James instead, an older back who can't hold Johnson's cleats. So, not a bust player, per se, but clearly, a bust pick for the Cardinals. Words of wisdom.
Ok, so, here we are, discussing the busts of this draft in the Top 10. Now lets start right at the top with #1 pick: Jamarcus Russell. We were told the Raiders did not need a wide receiver because of the depth of talent at the position, so they passed on a sure thing. Amazing, looking back at history, a team actually passing on a sure thing. Cheers to Matt Millen for taking him. Anyway, the depth of talent experts are now referring to include Ronald Curry and the always reliable Jerry Porter, a guy who just didn't want to play. With Randy Moss off and soon to be winning Superbowls, these are the targets Russell has to work with. But in my opinion you could bring in a time machine, reincarnate Fred Biletnikoff, Jerry Rice and Dave Casper, and it still would not matter. This guy was 'Born to Bust'. Hello Dan McGwire. Hello Daunte Culpepper. Kiffin has lost his job before he has even left the tunnel for the first preseason game.
The second bust, well, it has to be someone, so I am going to say it's Laron Landry. Clearly, he will not be a terrible player, but I do not see the talent here that I see with teamate Sean Taylor. Good player, sure. Not a top 10 pick. In fact, I have a hard time EVER taking a Safety in the Top 10. It's pretty much, in my opinion, the easiest position to fill. You're basically saying, "We think we're getting Ronnie Lott here..." You're not. But it is safe, which is more than you can say for most first round picks. Plus, with Sean Taylor surely working on sending that will send him to a prison, it's good to have depth.
Again, someone has to bust, and I am a believer that turf kills. Well, Adrian Peterson has never proven durable, and he loves to take hits. He also loves to fall into the endzone and break a collarbone. He didn't even get hit when he was injured. He was diving! Well, he'll help the Vikings continue their plunge. Peterson will start the first 3-4 games as one of the leaders in rushing yards in the NFC, and then, he'll be hurt...again and again and again. Not a fact, just a guess. If he was durable he'd be a sure fire #1 pick, IMO.
I know, you want me to say Ted Ginn Jr., but I won't. I'm sorry, but he is the one player in this draft that no one in this draft can stop! The experts talk about Hall and Revis and Houston and others. Like any of these guys could ever stop Ted Ginn? Do you really think in a one on one situatuon the great Deangelo Hall would stop Ginn? I do not. And yet, all the analysts are saying, "What a bad pick...he might be injured" Wait, so he's a "great value" at #19 with the Titans, but bad value for the Dolphins at #9? Please. You get one pick in the first round, and you take the guy you think will work. He only runs 3 routes? And your point? Stop 1 of the 3 and he'll stop running those 3 routes. I'm sure no one in the league wants Devin Hester who also starts at WR.
My last bust is Amobi Okoye of Louisville, and it's not because of his talents, or lack there of. I think this guy has talent, and unfortunately for him he has no more eligibility left. I say this because he's still a teenager, and considering he's playing in the trenches, he's in serious trouble. His body is still growing, and i think the wear and tear of playing DT, slightly undersized, is going to really hurt him. It's like when teams use their young pitchers in baseball before their bodies grow into themselves. They tend to breakdown. I see that happening with Okoye, which is unfortunate.
So those are my four for now. I'm sure I'll be as correct as say, Mel Kiper Junior.
Picks I love.
Jamaal Anderson, Atlanta, Timmons to Pittsburgh, Harrell to Green Bay, Jon Beason to Carolina, Olsen to the Bears, and Anthony Gonzales to the Colts. Other than Harrell, who could miss, these will be the future great picks of this draft below the Top 7.
Pittsburgh did a fantastic job, and so did Carolina, picking up their top 4 picks, Tim Shaw late.
You just have to love